HOF Case Matrix
The Enshrinement Debate Zone Every contested Hall of Fame case on one chart. The vertical axis is the calibrated HOF probability; the horizontal axis is the gap between what the data says (KV-H position percentile) and what the voters say (accolades). Color is career shape. Clear locks and clear-outs are left off — only the arguable careers (20–80% probability) appear.
130 contested of 366 eligible · 79where data & voters agree
Underrated Locks ↗ ↖ Voter Darlings Snubbed Bubble ↘ ↙ Fading Cases ← voters say more data says more → 80% 20% 50% Sonny Jurgensen — 20% HOF · divergence +96 Drew Bledsoe — 23% HOF · divergence +85 Eli Manning — 20% HOF · divergence +84 · compiler George Rogers — 22% HOF · divergence +71 Ben Roethlisberger — 43% HOF · divergence +68 · compiler Boomer Esiason — 24% HOF · divergence +67 Asante Samuel — 31% HOF · divergence +62 Simeon Rice — 25% HOF · divergence +58 Ricky Watters — 21% HOF · divergence +55 Frank Gore — 24% HOF · divergence +54 · compiler Freeman McNeil — 22% HOF · divergence +54 DeMarco Murray — 24% HOF · divergence +53 · comet Shaun Alexander — 25% HOF · divergence +52 · balanced Henry Ellard — 33% HOF · divergence +47 Mario Williams — 21% HOF · divergence +46 Clyde Simmons — 24% HOF · divergence +45 Don Hutson — 62% HOF · divergence +42 LeRoy Butler — 23% HOF · divergence -41 Reggie Wayne — 30% HOF · divergence +40 · compiler Brandon Marshall — 20% HOF · divergence +40 · compiler Jim Brown — 43% HOF · divergence +39 Sam Madison — 26% HOF · divergence +39 Eddie George — 24% HOF · divergence +39 Rich Gannon — 32% HOF · divergence +38 Darren Sharper — 51% HOF · divergence +37 Robert Mathis — 28% HOF · divergence +37 NaVorro Bowman — 24% HOF · divergence +37 Derrick Thomas — 22% HOF · divergence -37 Steve Smith — 45% HOF · divergence +35 · compiler Torry Holt — 42% HOF · divergence +35 · compiler Mike Quick — 21% HOF · divergence +31 Clay Matthews — 24% HOF · divergence +30 Richard Sherman — 54% HOF · divergence +29 Neil Smith — 25% HOF · divergence +29 Marshawn Lynch — 22% HOF · divergence +29 · balanced Brian Urlacher — 55% HOF · divergence +28 Chad Johnson — 33% HOF · divergence +28 · balanced Eric Weddle — 32% HOF · divergence +28 La'Roi Glover — 20% HOF · divergence +28 Todd Gurley — 28% HOF · divergence +28 · comet Le'Veon Bell — 22% HOF · divergence +28 · comet Herman Moore — 34% HOF · divergence +27 John Abraham — 39% HOF · divergence +26 Terrell Suggs — 37% HOF · divergence +25 Elvis Dumervil — 31% HOF · divergence +25 John Elway — 44% HOF · divergence +23 Earl Thomas — 46% HOF · divergence +22 Jamaal Charles — 25% HOF · divergence +22 · comet LeSean McCoy — 43% HOF · divergence +21 · compiler Eric Allen — 23% HOF · divergence +21 Zach Thomas — 76% HOF · divergence +20 Luke Kuechly — 64% HOF · divergence +19 Patrick Willis — 60% HOF · divergence +19 Ty Law — 46% HOF · divergence +19 Geno Atkins — 32% HOF · divergence +19 Darren Woodson — 26% HOF · divergence +19 Edgerrin James — 28% HOF · divergence +19 · balanced Michael Irvin — 20% HOF · divergence +19 Roger Craig — 26% HOF · divergence +19 Rob Gronkowski — 33% HOF · divergence +15 · balanced Ronde Barber — 50% HOF · divergence +15 Tim Brown — 22% HOF · divergence +15 Curtis Martin — 37% HOF · divergence +14 Jason Witten — 33% HOF · divergence +13 · compiler John Lynch — 71% HOF · divergence +13 Andre Johnson — 64% HOF · divergence +13 · compiler Charles Haley — 24% HOF · divergence +13 Derrick Brooks — 54% HOF · divergence -12 Thurman Thomas — 45% HOF · divergence +12 Mike Alstott — 31% HOF · divergence +12 Charles Woodson — 78% HOF · divergence +11 Sterling Sharpe — 61% HOF · divergence +11 Aeneas Williams — 66% HOF · divergence +11 Terrell Davis — 51% HOF · divergence +11 Jason Taylor — 60% HOF · divergence +10 Jared Allen — 68% HOF · divergence +9 Calvin Johnson — 72% HOF · divergence +9 · balanced Dwight Freeney — 57% HOF · divergence +9 Chris Doleman — 53% HOF · divergence +9 Kevin Williams — 59% HOF · divergence +8 Troy Polamalu — 68% HOF · divergence +8 Jerome Bettis — 51% HOF · divergence +8 LaDainian Tomlinson — 73% HOF · divergence +6 · compiler Champ Bailey — 77% HOF · divergence +6 Junior Seau — 79% HOF · divergence +5 Julius Peppers — 72% HOF · divergence +5 Brian Dawkins — 62% HOF · divergence +5 Kevin Greene — 39% HOF · divergence -5 Sid Luckman — 32% HOF · divergence +5 Michael Strahan — 75% HOF · divergence +4 Shannon Sharpe — 33% HOF · divergence +4 Warren Sapp — 62% HOF · divergence +4 Marshall Faulk — 61% HOF · divergence +4 Tony Gonzalez — 77% HOF · divergence +3 Richard Seymour — 30% HOF · divergence +3 Cortez Kennedy — 30% HOF · divergence -1 Randall McDaniel — 76% HOF · divergence 0 Mike Singletary — 69% HOF · divergence 0 Larry Allen — 67% HOF · divergence 0 Alan Faneca — 63% HOF · divergence 0 Joe Thomas — 62% HOF · divergence 0 Dermontti Dawson — 57% HOF · divergence 0 Jonathan Ogden — 49% HOF · divergence 0 Willie Roaf — 49% HOF · divergence 0 Steve Hutchinson — 48% HOF · divergence 0 Walter Jones — 45% HOF · divergence 0 Shane Lechler — 35% HOF · divergence 0 Jahri Evans — 38% HOF · divergence 0 Kevin Mawae — 37% HOF · divergence 0 Darrelle Revis — 29% HOF · divergence 0 Will Shields — 36% HOF · divergence 0 Orlando Pace — 33% HOF · divergence 0 Dwight Stephenson — 31% HOF · divergence 0 Marcus Allen — 21% HOF · divergence 0 Arnie Herber — 32% HOF · divergence 0 Mike Munchak — 28% HOF · divergence 0 Steve Wisniewski — 28% HOF · divergence 0 Willie Anderson — 27% HOF · divergence 0 Maurkice Pouncey — 26% HOF · divergence 0 Marshal Yanda — 25% HOF · divergence 0 Richmond Webb — 25% HOF · divergence 0 Nick Mangold — 25% HOF · divergence 0 Russ Grimm — 25% HOF · divergence 0 Andrew Whitworth — 24% HOF · divergence 0 Tony Boselli — 24% HOF · divergence 0 Jim Lachey — 23% HOF · divergence 0 Lomas Brown — 22% HOF · divergence 0 Tom Nalen — 22% HOF · divergence 0 David DeCastro — 21% HOF · divergence 0 Ryan Kalil — 20% HOF · divergence 0 · shaded band = the 45–65% bubble
The Bubble — Make the Case The genuine coin-flips (45–65% probability), ranked by how much the data outruns the accolades. Positive = a data-backed argument for Canton; negative = a career the voters already rate above the numbers.
Methodology
Probability is StatVault's logistic-calibrated HOF Monitor. Divergence = KV-H position percentile − accolade percentile within position group (accolades scored Pro Bowl×1 + All-Pro×2 + HOF×6, the same weighting as the Data-vs-Voters board). Here divergence is shown unfloored for the full contested population, so even small gaps are visible. Neither signal is a verdict — production and reputation measure different things; this surface reveals the gap, not the truth. Players missing either signal are omitted, never fabricated.