StatVault

The ritual

The Vault

Every place StatVault records what you think, and every standing it feeds. The encyclopedia tells you what happened; this is where you go on record about what happens next.

Where your judgement is recorded

The standings, and what each one means

Three boards, kept separate on purpose — each answers a question the others cannot. Anything that would rank the same thing twice belongs here as a tab, not as another page.

Vault season ladder

Season points, divisions and promotion history.

Why it stands alone: Rewards sustained weekly participation — showing up is part of the score.

Predict standings

Aggregate market performance across daily and weekly picks, inside the Predict tool.

Why it stands alone: Covers a different question set and a different cadence to the Vault week.

Best-calibrated

Lowest Brier wins — opt-in only.

Why it stands alone: Ranks honesty, not accuracy: being right 60% of the time while saying 60% beats being right 80% while saying 100%.

How scoring works

Where you state a confidence, calls are scored with a Brier score: the squared distance between how sure you said you were and what actually happened. Lower is better, 0.25 is what you get by always saying 50%, and it rewards knowing your own uncertainty rather than sounding certain.

A call you made without stating a confidence still counts toward accuracy and your streak, but never toward calibration — we will not assume a number you did not give. An unresolved pick does not break a streak either: you have not been wrong, the week simply has not finished.

Calibration standings are opt-in and published in aggregate only. StatVault publishes no user-level telemetry.