NFL Hall of Fame Monitor

How the probability is calibrated

• Fit on 6,343 HOF-eligible players (retired ≥ 5 seasons), of whom 231 are enshrined — a base rate of 4%.
• A 1-D logistic regression maps monitor score → P(HOF), fit separately per position — a Hall-of-Fame lineman and a Hall-of-Fame receiver sit on different score distributions, so each player is judged against their own position group.
• Coverage note: era-normalized Knox (KV-H) is richest for 1999+. Pre-1999 legends lean on their All-Pro / Pro-Bowl record (exactly how voters remember them); KV-H only adds.