Did the Combine Predict Production?

The verdict, by position

Correlation between the athletic composite and realized career VAL. Higher bars mean the workout tracked production more closely — none of them tracked it strongly.

• TEr 0.27modestn=241
• DLr 0.23weakn=287
• EDGEr 0.19weakn=423
• DBr 0.15weakn=674
• RBr 0.13weakn=412
• LBr 0.05no signaln=422
• WRr 0.01no signaln=485
• QBr -0.07no signaln=149

Production without measurables

Players whose production percentile most exceeded their athletic-testing percentile within their position — the ones the workout would have talked you out of.

1. 1Anquan BoldinWR2003athletic 1.8→production 99.7· 4.72s forty+97.9pct surplus
2. 2Tom BradyQB2000athletic 2.3→production 99.7· 5.28s forty+97.4pct surplus
3. 3Chad JohnsonWR2001athletic 2.6→production 98.7· 4.57s forty+96.1pct surplus
4. 4Calais CampbellDE2008athletic 5→production 99.9· 5.04s forty+94.9pct surplus
5. 5Jarvis LandryWR2014athletic 0.9→production 95.2· 4.65s forty+94.3pct surplus
6. 6Dre'Mont JonesLB2019athletic 0.1→production 94· 5.12s forty+93.9pct surplus
7. 7Adrian PetersonRB2002athletic 5.7→production 99.6· 4.68s forty+93.9pct surplus
8. 8Roy WilliamsS2002athletic 3.6→production 95.6· 4.53s forty+92pct surplus
9. 9Plaxico BurressWR2000athletic 5.2→production 96.7· 4.59s forty+91.5pct surplus
10. 10Curtis LoftonMLB2008athletic 0.6→production 91.4· 4.79s forty+90.8pct surplus
11. 11Pernell McPheeLB2011athletic 2→production 92.8· 4.91s forty+90.8pct surplus
12. 12Brandon FlowersCB2008athletic 4.3→production 94.3· 4.55s forty+90pct surplus
13. 13DeAndre HopkinsWR2013athletic 9.8→production 99.5· 4.57s forty+89.7pct surplus
14. 14Matt RyanQB2008athletic 7.7→production 97· 4.89s forty+89.3pct surplus
15. 15Danny AmendolaWR2008athletic 3.7→production 92.1· 4.58s forty+88.4pct surplus
16. 16Bradie JamesILB2003athletic 4.4→production 92.1· 4.71s forty+87.7pct surplus
17. 17Jurrell CaseyDE2011athletic 3.9→production 91.1· 5.04s forty+87.2pct surplus
18. 18Randy McMichaelTE2002athletic 6.4→production 93.6· 4.88s forty+87.2pct surplus
19. 19Danny TrevathanILB2012athletic 3.8→production 89.7· 4.84s forty+85.9pct surplus
20. 20DeMarcus LawrenceLB2014athletic 13.3→production 98.9· 4.80s forty+85.6pct surplus
21. 21James ConnerRB2017athletic 9.7→production 95.3· 4.65s forty+85.6pct surplus
22. 22Jordan PoyerFS2013athletic 9.9→production 95.2· 4.54s forty+85.3pct surplus
23. 23Tyrann MathieuFS2013athletic 13.3→production 98.6· 4.50s forty+85.3pct surplus
24. 24Jihad WardLB2016athletic 0.4→production 84.2· 5.11s forty+83.8pct surplus
25. 25Matt SchaubQB2004athletic 5→production 88.3· 5.04s forty+83.3pct surplus
26. 26Antonio SmithDE2004athletic 9.5→production 92.6· 5.03s forty+83.1pct surplus
27. 27Renaldo HillS2001athletic 7.6→production 90.6· 4.68s forty+83pct surplus
28. 28David MontgomeryRB2019athletic 10.4→production 93.3· 4.63s forty+82.9pct surplus
29. 29Dwight LoweryFS2008athletic 5.9→production 88.6· 4.54s forty+82.7pct surplus
30. 30Clark HaggansLB2000athletic 10.3→production 93· 4.97s forty+82.7pct surplus
31. 31A.J. EpenesaLB2020athletic 3.2→production 85.4· 5.04s forty+82.2pct surplus
32. 32Jordy NelsonWR2008athletic 15.7→production 97.6· 4.51s forty+81.9pct surplus
33. 33Randy StarksDE2004athletic 6.7→production 88.5· 5.08s forty+81.8pct surplus
34. 34Xavien HowardCB2016athletic 12.5→production 94· 4.58s forty+81.5pct surplus
35. 35Bashaud BreelandCB2014athletic 11.6→production 92.7· 4.62s forty+81.1pct surplus
36. 36Andra DavisILB2002athletic 9.6→production 90.6· 4.77s forty+81pct surplus
37. 37Tommy KellyDE2004athletic 6→production 86.6· 4.87s forty+80.6pct surplus
38. 38Za'Darius SmithDE2015athletic 15.2→production 95.2· 4.83s forty+80pct surplus
39. 39Kenoy KennedyS2000athletic 0.5→production 80.3· 4.71s forty+79.8pct surplus
40. 40Larry FooteMLB2002athletic 14.9→production 94.2· 4.83s forty+79.3pct surplus

Workout warriors

The honest inverse: players who tested elite but produced below their athletic rank. Every name here carries a real career-value number — a player with no realized value is excluded, never labeled a bust.

1. 1Curtis KeatonRB2000athletic 99.2→production 2.7· 4.41s forty-96.5pct surplus
2. 2Channing TindallLB2022athletic 99.4→production 3.9· 4.47s forty-95.5pct surplus
3. 3Shemar StewartDE2025athletic 98.9→production 7· 4.59s forty-91.9pct surplus
4. 4Dorin DickersonTE2010athletic 98.5→production 7.3· 4.40s forty-91.2pct surplus
5. 5Cam SmithCB2023athletic 94.5→production 3.8· 4.43s forty-90.7pct surplus
6. 6Shamarko ThomasDB2013athletic 96.9→production 6.6· 4.42s forty-90.3pct surplus
7. 7Jake FunkRB2021athletic 90.7→production 0.5· 4.49s forty-90.2pct surplus
8. 8Jermaine BurtonWR2024athletic 94.1→production 4.5· 4.45s forty-89.6pct surplus
9. 9Leon JoeLB2004athletic 98.5→production 8.9· 4.49s forty-89.6pct surplus
10. 10Brady CookQB2025athletic 94.3→production 5· 4.59s forty-89.3pct surplus
11. 11Josh RobinsonDB2012athletic 97.7→production 8.8· 4.29s forty-88.9pct surplus
12. 12Javin HunterWR2002athletic 90.8→production 2.7· 4.47s forty-88.1pct surplus
13. 13Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsDT2025athletic 98.8→production 12.4· 4.86s forty-86.4pct surplus
14. 14Owa OdighizuwaDE2015athletic 88.4→production 2.5· 4.62s forty-85.9pct surplus
15. 15DJ GiddensRB2025athletic 94.8→production 9.2· 4.43s forty-85.6pct surplus
16. 16Jabari ZunigaDE2020athletic 86.9→production 1.5· 4.64s forty-85.4pct surplus
17. 17Logan LeeDT2024athletic 85→production 1.4· 5.05s forty-83.6pct surplus
18. 18Josh BoyceWR2013athletic 91.3→production 8.1· 4.38s forty-83.2pct surplus
19. 19Marvin AustinDT2011athletic 94.4→production 11.3· 4.84s forty-83.1pct surplus
20. 20Devon WylieWR2012athletic 85.5→production 2.7· 4.36s forty-82.8pct surplus
21. 21Marvell TellCB2019athletic 99.6→production 16.9-82.7pct surplus
22. 22Ken WebsterDB2019athletic 93.4→production 10.8· 4.43s forty-82.6pct surplus
23. 23Zaviar GoodenLB2013athletic 96→production 13.4· 4.47s forty-82.6pct surplus
24. 24Tyler ErvinRB2016athletic 92.7→production 10.1· 4.41s forty-82.6pct surplus
25. 25Dave StachelskiTE2000athletic 83→production 0.4· 4.78s forty-82.6pct surplus
26. 26Michael EgnewTE2012athletic 89.4→production 6.8· 4.52s forty-82.6pct surplus
27. 27Kevin GarrettDB2003athletic 89.8→production 7.4· 4.32s forty-82.4pct surplus
28. 28Amare BarnoLB2022athletic 94→production 11.8· 4.36s forty-82.2pct surplus
29. 29Godwin IgwebuikeRB2018athletic 93.6→production 11.8· 4.44s forty-81.8pct surplus
30. 30Tre TomlinsonCB2023athletic 82.4→production 0.8· 4.41s forty-81.6pct surplus
31. 31Dri ArcherRB2014athletic 94.5→production 13· 4.26s forty-81.5pct surplus
32. 32DeAndre ElliottCB2016athletic 81.6→production 0.4· 4.55s forty-81.2pct surplus
33. 33Tai FeltonWR2025athletic 97→production 16· 4.37s forty-81pct surplus
34. 34Tanner MuseLB2020athletic 81.3→production 0.7· 4.41s forty-80.6pct surplus
35. 35Devontez WalkerWR2024athletic 98.2→production 17.9· 4.36s forty-80.3pct surplus
36. 36Yamon FigursWR2007athletic 80.8→production 0.7· 4.30s forty-80.1pct surplus
37. 37Carter CoughlinLB2020athletic 89.5→production 10.2· 4.57s forty-79.3pct surplus
38. 38Tip ReimanTE2024athletic 82→production 2.9· 4.64s forty-79.1pct surplus
39. 39Randy FasaniQB2002athletic 80.9→production 2· 4.77s forty-78.9pct surplus
40. 40Trent GambleDB2000athletic 88.3→production 9.6· 4.56s forty-78.7pct surplus