J.J. Nelson is a career quality starter — a receiver whose body of work places Nelson in the top half of all players at the position historically. The Knox model values sustained contribution over flash, and Nelson's career arc reflects exactly that kind of reliable professional-grade performance.
J.J. Nelson
Top 40% all-time WRsHigh-End Starter
Height5'10"
Weight160 lb
BornApr 24, 1992
Age34
CollegeUABSee College Stats
ConferenceNO FOOTBALL
Rookie yr2015
A quality wide receiver with a above-average career — a legitimate starter who contributed meaningfully across their career.
Career Value · VORP
VORP 19 · #3140 · Role PlayerWorth 19 points of value above a freely-available replacement receiver — top 69% of all 4,649 ranked at the position. 2 of 4 seasons cleared the replacement bar, by +9.5 on average.See board →
Seasons above replacement
2 cleared
2 replaced
Beat replacement (adds to VORP) Below it — adds 0, never a debit
48
Replacement
the KC-H bar
→
Career Value · VORP
19 career value over replacement — #3140 all-time of 4,649. 4.8/season above a replacement-level WR.
Draft OutcomeSteal ↑
Pick #159 (Rd 5) · ARI · 2015 · +22.4 vs expected KV-H
49actual
26.6 expected · Δ+22.4
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