Josh Downs is a career quality starter — a receiver whose body of work places Downs in the top half of all players at the position historically. The Knox model values sustained contribution over flash, and Downs's career arc reflects exactly that kind of reliable professional-grade performance.
Josh Downs
Top 30% all-time WRsReliable Starter
Height5'9"
Weight171 lb
BornAug 12, 2001
Age25
ConferenceAtlantic Coast
Rookie yr2023
A wide receiver with a top 30% among starters — the kind of consistent contributor every roster needs. Solid availability (excellent availability over their career) added to their value.
Career Value · VORP
VORP 49 · #2078 · Above AverageWorth 49 points of value above a freely-available replacement receiver — top 46% of all 4,649 ranked at the position. 3 of 3 seasons cleared the replacement bar, by +16.3 on average.See board →
Seasons above replacement
3 cleared
Beat replacement (adds to VORP) Below it — adds 0, never a debit
48
Replacement
the KC-H bar
→
Career Value · VORP
49 career value over replacement — #2078 all-time of 4,649. 16.3/season above a replacement-level WR.
Draft OutcomeValue ↑
Pick #79 (Rd 3) · IND · 2023 · +17.7 vs expected KV-H
55actual
37.3 expected · Δ+17.7
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