John Carlson is a career quality starter — a tight end whose body of work places Carlson in the top quarter of all players at the position historically. The Knox model values sustained contribution over flash, and Carlson's career arc reflects exactly that kind of reliable professional-grade performance.
John Carlson
Height6'5"
A top 20% all-time tight end who consistently made an impact across multiple seasons. Lower snap-level production reinforces the playmaking ability.
Career Value · VORP
VORP 79 · #1441 · Above AverageWorth 79 points of value above a freely-available replacement tight end — top 32% of all 4,649 ranked at the position. 5 of 6 seasons cleared the replacement bar, by +15.8 on average.See board →
Seasons above replacement
5 cleared
Beat replacement (adds to VORP) Below it — adds 0, never a debit
46
Replacement
the KC-H bar
→
Career Value · VORP
79 career value over replacement — #1441 all-time of 4,649. 13.2/season above a replacement-level TE.
Draft OutcomeValue ↑
Pick #38 (Rd 2) · SEA · 2008 · +11.5 vs expected KV-H
62actual
50.5 expected · Δ+11.5
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